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Discussion Starter #1
interesting article:


Well Production Drops By Nearly Half After Two Years

There continues to be quite a bit of discussion
about the rapid production drop-off of
Pennsylvania's unconventional gas wells. Our
database team revisited this topic, using the
recently released 2013 production values, and
have calculated the estimated drop-off values
for wells with continual production in the last
three years: 2013, 2012, and 2011.

Our research shows that, on average, PA gas well
production drops off 32% in the second year of
production, and 45% in the third year.

Production values for 2013 were prorated based
on first half production reports recently released
by the PA DEP. Only wells with at least 300 days
of recorded production in each of the three years
were considered. There were 663 qualifying wells
in our data set.

For each qualifying well, the average yearly
production values are:

1st year (2011) - $2,519,702.50 - (752,150 Mcf)
2nd year (2012) - $1,725,638.60 - (515,116 Mcf)
3rd year (2013) - $1,382,256.90 - (412,614 Mcf) *prorated

Pricing is based on on the most recent US Energy
Information Administration at-the-wellhead pricing
of $3.35/Mcf.

We've added production drop-off graphs at our
Graphs and Statistics area, where Full Members
can view a more in-depth portrayal of how production
drop-off plays out in the state. To view the
graphs, visit:

www.MarcellusGas.Org/graphs/PA#pdrop

We've also included a four year drop-off graph at
this area. The data-set for a four year analysis
is much smaller - only 160 wells qualified with
at least 300 production days in each of the four years.

Comparatively, the graphs show that production drop-off
percentage values are declining as more qualifying
wells are analyzed. The four year graph shows drop-off
at 43% percent in the second year of production, and
58% percent in the third year.

There are nearly 6,000 graphs available at
MarcellusGas.Org. The graphs provide statistical
information at the state, county, and township levels.
To review our deep collection of graphs, visit:

www.MarcellusGas.Org/graphs/graphs_and_stats.php

and choose the level of reporting you're interested in.
 

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I wonder how they figure that accurately when gas company's turn well productions up and down, depending on how much they can sell. They also have lowered the outputs on existing wells as they add new ones on line. If they haven't sold all they are producing for a 6 month span, they slow the wells down, or turn them off.
Have they done a check of wells in various areas as far as drop off rates.....but wells that the gas company's haven't had to manipulate, and just let them run wide open for 3 years ?
 

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g46 said:
Our research shows that, on average, PA gas well
production drops off 32% in the second year of
production, and 45% in the third year
Did ya even read the dang thing before you came up with the title???
 

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Discussion Starter #4
timberdoodle said:
g46 said:
Our research shows that, on average, PA gas well
production drops off 32% in the second year of
production, and 45% in the third year
Did ya even read the dang thing before you came up with the title???
Sure did, but didn't feel it prudent to edit marcellusgas.org's article...Did you read the dang thing? I assumed they were saying 43% is nearly half from this line: "The four year graph shows drop-off
at 43% percent in the second year of production"
 

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Discussion Starter #5
buzz said:
I wonder how they figure that accurately when gas company's turn well productions up and down, depending on how much they can sell. They also have lowered the outputs on existing wells as they add new ones on line. If they haven't sold all they are producing for a 6 month span, they slow the wells down, or turn them off.
Have they done a check of wells in various areas as far as drop off rates.....but wells that the gas company's haven't had to manipulate, and just let them run wide open for 3 years ?
good questions.. I'd suggest you ask the author of the article.
 
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