Turkey numbers

12751 Views 250 Replies 49 Participants Last post by Fairchild #17, 1 mo ago

The Pennsylvanian

Discussion Starter · 3 mo ago

While trying not to sound like chicken litte, I wanted to see what/if you fellas were seeing in the SW region. Around me, turkeys have become scarce. Two springs ago we had a flock of close to 100 birds that was around for years start disappearing. It dropped by half in one year and now I haven't seen a turkey around the house since Novemeber. I went out yesterday morning to listen for gobbling and nothing, I walked a 6 mile loop too. I didn't even hear far off gobbles, no scratching sign, no droppings under the old typical roosting trees, no feathers laying around. I no the populations go through high and low cycles but I've never experienced anything like this in my life. Last year was the hardest year I had filling tags, I still got it done but it took a long time for me to find some birds..... this is hopefully just my experience. Curious how others in the region are .asking out with he spring scouting?

It wasn't a total bust yesterday. I went through a fee bedding areas I know and ended up finding 5 sheds 4 of them being 2 matched pairs!

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TrashPanda

· #81 · 2 mo ago

The biggest problem that I see is the number of people who want the turkey population to perpetually be at the all time high estimate of 20 some years ago.
Make that same suggestion about deer populations and you’ll get laughed off of here for not knowing how to hunt. I got berated more than once for saying the cold and wet successive years was the problem. Now we’ve had two good years and voila…people all over the state saying they’re seeing more turkeys than they have in a while.
Sounds like there are still areas with lower populations, but it sure isn’t the whole state and definitely not in any of the four main units where I hunt.

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TrashPanda

· #82 · 2 mo ago

My issue with the PGC BOC is that when they removed rifles and shortened fall seasons, they said they would revisit it when populations rebounded. Well now they’re saying that populations have rebounded so we will see if the BOC are liars or not.

Shiftyshad

· #83 · 2 mo ago

I tend to agree with RSB and Trash Panda. There was a serious string of cold and wet springs that line up with the decline and then a couple moderate springs and boom (I was going to say voila but TP finished his post first), there are suddenly turkeys again. Obviously these results may vary by individual areas ,i.e. places with more trappers and better habitat may have recovered more quickly compared to areas wtih more predators and less ideal habitat. There has been an apparent uptick in predators where I hunt, even in the last few years, but we have definitely seen more turkey the last two years.

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Ruffbritt3

· #84 · 2 mo ago

fall gobbler said:
I wish you guys would quit talking about limiting hunting as an answer to helping the turkey population. Fall hunting is not the problem. An extra spring gobbler tag is not the problem. Shooting a few bearded hens is not the problem.
It's time for the PGC to do their job, find out what's going on with our turkey population (in some areas), and make very public what they are doing and finding out, or NOT finding out. This has been being brought to their attention by those of us in concern for at least seven years now. It's time for some answers or at the very least, detailed accounts of what studies they are doing....what works, what doesn't, etc.

As has been pointed out many, many times, limiting the tiny take of the second spring tag, or fall hunting (which isn't anywhere near as popular as years ago) only falls in the category of "we gotta do something", and in fact does NOTHING to help and gives the PGC a temporary out.

It's time to expect some research and the resulting answers, good, bad or inconclusive. Do your job PGC and keep us well informed.

Don't confuse the lack of answers as a lack of effort. Not even the big conservation organizations like TFT or NWTF have answers and their sole focus is on the turkey. If there's one thing the GC is doing right, it's the turkey.

On another note, there were about 6 different gobblers sounding off within earshot of my listening location yesterday. Spring is here

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Patrapper01

· #85 · 2 mo ago

Where did you guys see the population estimate that reflects a rebound?

Fairchild #17

· #86 · 2 mo ago

Does anyone have a resource to show average temps and rainfall for locales over the past 30-40 years?
Were the 80’s and 90s always high and dry….across the entire State, in the Midwest, and all up and down the eastern coast?

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bradford13

· #87 · 2 mo ago

I think is all through hunters sightings in the last couple months Patrap, definitely not scientific. We’ve seen more birds in 3B this year more then the last 10.

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Fairchild #17

· #88 · 2 mo ago

Everyone I hear from is seeing lots of gobblers and relatively small numbers of hens.
I saw 12 gobs and 3 hens the other day together. This has been the typical report.
Something is askew with the ratio. Last year was same thing. I’d see 7-10 gobs per hen almost everywhere and many times the gobs were all alone. Before, during and after season.

TBrom

· #89 · 2 mo ago

Fairchild #17 said:
Does anyone have a resource to show average temps and rainfall for locales over the past 30-40 years?
Were the 80’s and 90s always high and dry….across the entire State, in the Midwest, and all up and down the eastern coast?

Click on the historical weather tab. Local Weather Forecast, News and Conditions | Weather Underground

Patrapper01

· #90 · 2 mo ago

Fairchild #17 said:
Everyone I hear from is seeing lots of gobblers and relatively small numbers of hens.
I saw 12 gobs and 3 hens the other day together. This has been the typical report.
Something is askew with the ratio. Last year was same thing. I’d see 7-10 gobs per hen almost everywhere and many times the gobs were all alone. Before, during and after season.

Pretty much been the exact opposite here, that's why they should manage turkey by wmu instead of statewide.

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bradford13

· #91 · 2 mo ago

Yea a little different here also, last month over 50 hens and no Tom’s across from camp

fall gobbler

· #92 · 2 mo ago

Ruffbritt3 said:
Don't confuse the lack of answers as a lack of effort. Not even the big conservation organizations like TFT or NWTF have answers and their sole focus is on the turkey. If there's one thing the GC is doing right, it's the turkey.

On another note, there were about 6 different gobblers sounding off within earshot of my listening location yesterday. Spring is here

I'm not confused at all. I've been heavily involved in everything and every organization to do with turkeys and still am.

A healthy, continuous dialog, articles, interviews keeping concerned folks up to date. What they are doing? What they are looking for? Do they know anything? Do they have a suspicion.

Monthly articles and updates in print, say the Pa. Outdoor New, would be an excellent way to keep folks informed and follow along. The information, IMHO, is sadly lacking, meanwhile, the turkey population (in some areas) is circling the drain.

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CMP70306

· #93 · 2 mo ago

Fairchild #17 said:
Everyone I hear from is seeing lots of gobblers and relatively small numbers of hens.
I saw 12 gobs and 3 hens the other day together. This has been the typical report.
Something is askew with the ratio. Last year was same thing. I’d see 7-10 gobs per hen almost everywhere and many times the gobs were all alone. Before, during and after season.

Here in 4A the group that hangs out on our property was 30 hens and 5 jakes last I saw them. Did not see a long beard as best I could tell.

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fall gobbler

· #94 · 2 mo ago

R. S. B. said:
Since you have been on top of everything turkey for so long why is it that you can't tell everyone why the turkey numbers have declined?

At this point there is no evidence, that anyone has been able to find from this or any other state's research, that proves any problem beyond the long running series of wet spring and summer conditions. They have and continue to look at a number of other possibilities, but so far they have not found any other surefire problems affecting turkeys. They are still looking and eventually might find something. If they do I am darn sure they both tell everyone what they found then do what they can, if anything, to mitigate it.

Right now I am not convinced there is a problem beyond that long run of wet springs and summers that affected poult survival for so many years it became a compounding issue.

But since you claim to have been on top of everything turkey for so long why don't you just point them in the right direction to find the correct answer and solve this problem?

I guess it is just a lot easier to find fault than it is to offer up anything constructive, like in the form of a suggestion, direction or solution though isn't it?

Dick Bodenhorn

Good ole condescending Dick.

"But since you claim to have been on top of everything turkey for so long why don't you just point them in the right direction to find the correct answer and solve this problem?"

Because I'm not a biologist. What I am is an observant woodman and I've let my findings for the areas that I am intimately familiar with be known to the PGC. I haven't heard or seen anything in print for these specific areas. My best friend did talk to a Game Warden last spring in one of these areas and told him he hadn't heard anything there all season. The Game Warden told him that was because that area was hit very hard with the bird flu. My buddy said that the Warden was very adamant about his answer.

Have you heard anything about that?

fall gobbler

· #95 · 2 mo ago

TrashPanda said:
The biggest problem that I see is the number of people who want the turkey population to perpetually be at the all time high estimate of 20 some years ago.
Make that same suggestion about deer populations and you’ll get laughed off of here for not knowing how to hunt. I got berated more than once for saying the cold and wet successive years was the problem. Now we’ve had two good years and voila…people all over the state saying they’re seeing more turkeys than they have in a while.
Sounds like there are still areas with lower populations, but it sure isn’t the whole state and definitely not in any of the four main units where I hunt.

What you say is correct.
What I refer to is very specific areas that held very good numbers of birds for 20 years. Ups and downs, but even the down years were good. Then, "something" happened and in 5-6 years, they were all but gone. Even after two good dry springs and early summers, nothing has changed. There are scant few birds. I'm also not talking about a farm or two. The area I refer to is northwestern 5C and into 4C encompassing the Blue Mountain.

There are areas of this state that have rebounded well and are loaded with birds, that is good and true. I'm concerned about the areas that haven't rebounded at all.

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Fairchild #17

· #96 · 2 mo ago

TBrom said:
Click on the historical weather tab. Local Weather Forecast, News and Conditions | Weather Underground

The data was too flawed to come to any conclusions.
Several years showed low temps of ZERO degrees in June.
Rainfalls were Flawed on some charts as well.
I was hoping somewhere would just simply list the temperature by number and the rainfall amount by number for a quick comparison. Those charts leave too much open to interpretation

TBrom

· #97 · 2 mo ago

Fairchild #17 said:
The data was too flawed to come to any conclusions.
Several years showed low temps of ZERO degrees in June.
Rainfalls were Flawed on some charts as well.
I was hoping somewhere would just simply list the temperature by number and the rainfall amount by number for a quick comparison. Those charts leave too much open to interpretation

That's the most accurate historical data that I've ever been able to find. If you find something better please share because I do use it continuously for deer hunting.

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R. S. B.

· #98 · 2 mo ago

fall gobbler said:
Good ole condescending Dick.

"But since you claim to have been on top of everything turkey for so long why don't you just point them in the right direction to find the correct answer and solve this problem?"

Because I'm not a biologist. What I am is an observant woodman and I've let my findings for the areas that I am intimately familiar with be known to the PGC. I haven't heard or seen anything in print for these specific areas. My best friend did talk to a Game Warden last spring in one of these areas and told him he hadn't heard anything there all season. The Game Warden told him that was because that area was hit very hard with the bird flu. My buddy said that the Warden was very adamant about his answer.

Have you heard anything about that?

I'm not trying to be condescending but I do get pretty darn sick of people who do nothing but bash the Game Commission. Especially when the best information available has been put before them time and again and they refuse to accept the facts of the information and still blame the Game Commission for things they have no control over or ability to fix.

As for you concerns about your specific areas I have no factual information because I don't spend time there. But, it appears to me that your areas of concern are mostly areas where urban sprawl and ever increasing new pavement are constantly taking over what used to be wildlife habitat. It only stands to reason as we lose wildlife habitat we would also expect most wildlife population to decline in those areas as well. Granted a few species seem to adapt well in urban areas but turkeys don't seem to be one of the species that thrive in urban areas.

But, even in the urban areas I highly suspect the biggest hit on the turkey populations, even there, has been the series of wet springs and summers we had over the past decade or so.

As for avian influenza affecting turkeys. Yes it can happen. But, so far there is no evidence that avian influenza is or has been a factor anywhere in this state.

Dick Bodenhorn

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R. S. B.

· #99 · 2 mo ago

Fairchild #17 said:
The data was too flawed to come to any conclusions.
Several years showed low temps of ZERO degrees in June.
Rainfalls were Flawed on some charts as well.
I was hoping somewhere would just simply list the temperature by number and the rainfall amount by number for a quick comparison. Those charts leave too much open to interpretation

Temperatures aren't really even as big a factor in turkey poult survival as just the number of day of rain over the summer months of June, July and August. It can be pretty darn warm and young turkeys just walking through wet grass will soon be dead if they get wet and hen can't brood them. That hypothetic shock can, and often will, affect them and have them paralyzed and near death in just a matter of a few minutes.

That is why you see hens taking their poults out in open fields, mowed lawns and on low use roadways while it is raining or the grass, ferns and other understory are wet. They need to keep those poults dry and brood them often when the conditions are wet, even in the summer. As the poults grow they can't all fit under the hen's wings and she starts to lose more and more of them with each wet time period.

When you have one year of the poor conditions most hunters will not even notice the population decline the next year. But, when you get back to back years or a running series of years of those poor poult survival years you start getting a compounding of population decline. I believe that is what we are currently experiencing with turkeys and even to some extent with the grouse decline. We have also seen that compounding effect with deer populations following a series of harsh winters in a short time period. With deer though it is mostly from the decline in fawn survival rates the following spring when the bred does have to go through a harsh or prolonged winter.

Those are things that will affect wildlife populations that only nature can change and the Game Commission has no control over, even though they will still get blamed for it when hunters don't see as much game and they think they should.

The thing with compounding factors that have depressed wildlife survival rates and populations it will then take a a longer period of time and perhaps even compounding years of favorable conditions for the population to once again show any significant increase.

Dick Bodenhorn

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fall gobbler

· #100 · 2 mo ago

R. S. B. said:
I'm not trying to be condescending but I do get pretty darn sick of people who do nothing but bash the Game Commission. Especially when the best information available has been put before them time and again and they refuse to accept the facts of the information and still blame the Game Commission for things they have no control over or ability to fix.

I'm not and have never "blamed" the PGC for things they have no control over. I have said it many times, it's the lack of information, good, bad, ugly, what they're researching, what are they looking for, how can we help. A PDF every couple of years is not satisfactory. Keep your shareholders informed. I really don't think that's too much to ask.

R. S. B. said:
As for you concerns about your specific areas I have no factual information because I don't spend time there. But, it appears to me that your areas of concern are mostly areas where urban sprawl and ever increasing new pavement are constantly taking over what used to be wildlife habitat. It only stands to reason as we lose wildlife habitat we would also expect most wildlife population to decline in those areas as well. Granted a few species seem to adapt well in urban areas but turkeys don't seem to be one of the species that thrive in urban areas.

No, not an urban sprawl area. Maybe most of 5C, but not the area I'm talking about. Look it up on a map. Hawk Mountain, east past the village of Kempton about 5 miles which includes the Schochary Ridge and north to the Blue Mountain and even over to the north side of the Blue into Schuylkill Co.

That's as good of turkey country as you can have and in the passed decades, it proved that by great numbers of turkeys. Then they were gone. A few very small pockets here and there, but that's it.

R. S. B. said:
As for avian influenza affecting turkeys. Yes it can happen. But, so far there is no evidence that avian influenza is or has been a factor anywhere in this state.

Dick Bodenhorn

Right, that's what I thought, but this Game Warden stated it emphatically as factual, according to my buddy.

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