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you could file a right to know request from te pgc.
True, but I’m not gonna go that far, at least yet. And to be clear once again, I do not believe that the PGC or anyone else is rigging anything to favor anybody over anybody else. I just think that perhaps the system has some kinks in it…

Having said that, in order to really delve deeper into these seemingly odd coincidences I would need piles more data such as how many people from a particular zip code applied each year, how many points they had, what tags they applied for, where/how they purchase their applications from, etc. Having all of this info would paint a much better picture as to just how rare some of these things are, just how impossible the odds are.

So far my “research” has certainly raised my eyebrows in regards to things that I keep seeing pop up in the draws every year and it’s enough to make me curious as to what is potentially going on.
 

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I just stated in a previous post that I don’t believe they the system is “rigged” but that with just a quick analysis of recent draws, there are reoccurring “coincidences” that seem to defy logic and the odds. Could it be just coincidences? Sure. Could there be some sort of flaw on the computer program that is seemingly giving out quite a few tags to the same towns or zip codes every year? Maybe.

I’m sure most everybody in Leeper does hunt, but it’s still 159 people. Of those 159 people, how many apply for elk tags? I don’t know because I don’t have the data, but I can almost guarantee that far more people from places with much higher populations apply every year. It’s just that the probability of things like that happening seem astronomical.

And as far as those with the most points getting the “lion’s share” of the tags? Naw. The only data I could find so far is from 2016:

Max points of 14

14 points-25 tags/20%
13 points-14 tags/11.2%
12 points-5 tags/4%
11 points-10 tags/8%
10 points-5 tags/4%
9 points-9 tags/7.2%
8 points-6 tags/4.8%
7 points-5 tags/4%
6 points-8 tags/6.4%
5 points-4 tags/3.2%
4 points-5 tags/4%
3 points-16 tags/12.8%
2 points-3 tags/2.4%
1 point-9 tags/7.2%
Conversely, if you take the bottom half of this list, they drew 40% of the tags.

The top half of the list drew 60% of the tags. Which half would you rather be in? To say that the bonus points give almost no advantage is false.
 

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Conversely, if you take the bottom half of this list, they drew 40% of the tags.

The top half of the list drew 60% of the tags. Which half would you rather be in? To say that the bonus points give almost no advantage is false.
Never said that having more points doesn’t give you an alleged “advantage”, just not the “advantage” that some hype it to be. After all, it’s still just a lottery and theoretically, everyone drawing for the very first time could win all the tags…

If we want to break the chart down further, those with max points drew 20% of the tags.

Those with only 3 points or 1 point drew 20% of the tags combined.

Those with only 3 points drew a higher percentage of tags than any other group other than those with max points.

Those applying for the very first time drew 7.2% of the tags. Doesn’t sound like much until you see that they drew 4 more tags than those with 12 points.

IF the chart showed that those with max points were drawing over 50% of tags each year, I’d be on board claiming that they are getting the “lions share” of the tags, but that’s not the case, not even close. If the points truly played the “significant role” that the PGC and others claim then there should be no scenarios in which those with 3 points are drawing more tags than every rider groups except those with max poInts. If they played the “significant role” that is claimed, the percentage of tags drawn should steadily step down from max points to those applying for the first time…

BUT, since it’s a true lottery, there is no “preference” given and it just comes down to pure luck. As I said, there could be a scenario in which every single tag drawn is awarded to those applying for the very first time. And as I’ve been saying, perhaps the system is programmed and set up in a way that assures that those with max points get AROUND 20% of the tags, that nonresident get AROUND 10% of the tags, that every year there are enough first time applicants winning that it keeps people interested and keeping the faith in order to keep applying. Who knows?
 

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I'll be quite content having as many chances in the mix as I can. I've said it before, anyone who is unhappy with having max points, I'll gladly take them off your hands.
 

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I got denied for various sheep, bison and moose tags this year. It sucks and I'd like to have one. Guess what I'm going to do.........Accept it. Move on. And apply again next year.
 

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Look, I totally get what you are saying and I’m not totally disagreeing with you. I’m not stomping my feet and bellowing like a kid at the checkout that can’t get a candy bar.

The reality is that I’ve had an issue with the way the system has been set up for years, and now it’s been portrayed to the public and I’ve made no bones about that and the fact that I think it could have been altered and still can be altered.

And the reason that I really started digging deeper into these draws is because of the strange things that I kept seeing every year. It wasn’t/isn’t a one off thing and I kept asking myself time and time again, “what are the odds of THAT”? And then it would happen again and then again, and it was then that I really started to contemplate the possibility of the way the system is programmed being responsible for these odd “coincidences”. I’ll probably never know but for right now it’s something that has my attention and I’m going to continue to dig deeper and see what I find.

A few things that I’ve already found is multiple situations where tags are drawn from the same town, back to back, in the same zone. In one case, two tags from the same town drawn back to back, then another town, then back to back tags from the same town again. In another case, 3 tags were drawn in succession, all from towns that began with “East” in their names. I’m sorry, but the odds of things like this happening in a completely random draw just seem to improbable to me.

So far I’ve been able to go back 6 years into the draws and have compiled lists and will post my findings when I get there chance here. Some pretty crazy stuff if you ask me. And no, I don’t believe that I’m some sort of conspiracy theorist, convinced that there’s some man behind the curtain such as Rawley Cogan, pulling the strings and making sure that all his buddies get tags, I jus think that it’s reasonable, based on some of the things that I’ve seen, that it’s very possible that the computer is following certain patterns somehow.
 

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The first set of data fell into the "nice to know" category for me. The further this goes....well, let's just say that it's time for me to no longer be a part of this one. Best of luck to you in the upcoming season.
 

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The first set of data fell into the "nice to know" category for me. The further this goes....well, let's just say that it's time for me to no longer be a part of this one. Best of luck to you in the upcoming season.
Thats fine, but as I’ve stated at least 3 or 4 times now, I do not think that anything is rigged at all. I noticed some things that seemed odd, where the occurrences seemed very unlikely and the more I started to look into it, the more of these things popped up.

Is it really that crazy or conspiratorial to entertain the possibility that the computer program that draws names could have some sort of unintended flaw in it that has it picking names from the same towns or zip codes year after year? I’m not gathering up people to march on Elmerton Ave. and chant that the elk draw is rigged and demand “justice” or something like that, I’ve simply noticed some reoccurring things in the draw that seem almost to defy the odds even more so than the crazy odds to draw an elk tag in the first place and so I’ve been looking into it. And to be honest, I didn’t expect to find much of anything beyond a seemingly one off scenario, but then discovered more and more…

Maybe it is just coincidence, maybe it’s not. But for right now, I’m going to continue to compile as much data as possible because this topic has fascinated me for years. If you want to think of me as a sour grapes, sore loser, conspiracy theorist, whacko, go right ahead.
 

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i think hardly anyone from this part of the state (Erie, County) gets drawn, compared to the middle of the state
 

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Pa elk tag is a deal for any non resident hunter the license is cheap and the guide fees are cheap compared to any state out west.
 

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The Game Commision is aware of your posts and knows where you live! :oops:
Are they going to draw a tag for him to keep him quiet? ;)
 
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I haven’t looked at any of the numbers, but lets use this as an example. If there are 10 people in a drawing with 20 points they have 200 chances. If there are 100 people in the drawing with 3 points they would have 300 chances. The probability of someone with 3 points drawing a tag is higher than someone with 20 points, even thought the individual who has 3 points has a lower probability of being drawn than the person with 20 points.
 

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A couple of points from a non resident.

1) I saw a few posts about non residents not spending money locally and just going right to the outfitter. That may be the case in some instances, but personally I've gone back to elk country a dozen times now since I've drew my tag in 18. I visit the outfitters camp, local restaurants, and campgrounds. Each time I've brought new people with me to experience it. Ill be back up in about 3 weeks.

2) I agree non resident tags should be more expensive that resident tags. The current tag cost may be a little low, but be careful driving it too high, there's a large section of people who can't afford a $1000 tag on 2 months notice. Its part of the reason I've never been able to put together a Western hunt, especially with two young kids. The nice thing with the PA draw is that I can spend $30 and thats my total investment if I dont draw. I dont have to buy a license I may or may not use. Raise my application costs to a couple hundred dollars, I'm not wasting the cash. Why limit the cash flow. Its like walking into a casino and seeing an empty $50 blackjack table open next to a $10 table with people waiting to get on.

4) As far as capping the tags, sure, 10% is probably a good number. Considering its the first time in 20 years that PA has hit that threshold, I'd say it's probably a bit knee jersey, but if it happens again next year, maybe its worth considering.

3) As a Marylander, I can tell you there are plenty of people that wish that the PA folk would stay out, whether its for whitetail, sika, waterfowl, or crabbing. At the end of the day, the number of hunters are declining, Pittman Robinson funding is limited to match state input, so the more money a state brings in for their conservation programs, the better, so non residents coming for game not available in their home states is a good thing.
 
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