Well Production Drops By Nearly Half After Two Years
There continues to be quite a bit of discussion
about the rapid production drop-off of
Pennsylvania's unconventional gas wells. Our
database team revisited this topic, using the
recently released 2013 production values, and
have calculated the estimated drop-off values
for wells with continual production in the last
three years: 2013, 2012, and 2011.
Our research shows that, on average, PA gas well
production drops off 32% in the second year of
production, and 45% in the third year.
Production values for 2013 were prorated based
on first half production reports recently released
by the PA DEP. Only wells with at least 300 days
of recorded production in each of the three years
were considered. There were 663 qualifying wells
in our data set.
For each qualifying well, the average yearly
production values are:
1st year (2011) - $2,519,702.50 - (752,150 Mcf)
2nd year (2012) - $1,725,638.60 - (515,116 Mcf)
3rd year (2013) - $1,382,256.90 - (412,614 Mcf) *prorated
Pricing is based on on the most recent US Energy
Information Administration at-the-wellhead pricing
We've added production drop-off graphs at our
Graphs and Statistics area, where Full Members
can view a more in-depth portrayal of how production
drop-off plays out in the state. To view the
We've also included a four year drop-off graph at
this area. The data-set for a four year analysis
is much smaller - only 160 wells qualified with
at least 300 production days in each of the four years.
Comparatively, the graphs show that production drop-off
percentage values are declining as more qualifying
wells are analyzed. The four year graph shows drop-off
at 43% percent in the second year of production, and
58% percent in the third year.
There are nearly 6,000 graphs available at
MarcellusGas.Org. The graphs provide statistical
information at the state, county, and township levels.
To review our deep collection of graphs, visit:
and choose the level of reporting you're interested in.