Election Night Predictions - The HuntingPA.com Outdoor Community
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post #1 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 04:31 PM Thread Starter
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Election Night Predictions

Every four years since 2008 I've done this thread where I take my best guess on the results based on data I look at over the past few months.

Here is the state of the race in simplest terms: Trump needs to win all of the toss-ups and steal a state that is traditionally Democrat in order to win tonight. Frankly, the electoral map is no longer friendly to Republicans. Losing Virginia and Colorado plus making North Carolina a toss-up state really makes the board uncompetitive since 2004 for the GOP. Arizona and Texas in the future will be in the same position as North Carolina is now.

In my humble opinion, 2008 was an electoral realignment (last one was '68 that didn't fully occur until 1980 with Reagan due to Watergate) so this country was due for one. This means Democrats will be the dominant party in the White House for approximately 36 years since '08. The party needs to take back states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and possibly Minnesota in Presidential election to have a chance going forward, but that hasn't happened since pretty much '88 (Minnesota never went to Reagan).

Even giving all the toss-ups to Trump (plus Nevada which is a reach as explained below), he still falls short as shown here but could create a 269-269 tie which would most likely give a Trump-Kaine Executive Office based on how the House and Senate would shape up after January 3rd:



This would make Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (Omaha) or Maine's 2nd Congressional district decide the election since these are the only two-states without a winner-take all system and decide to delegate via congressional district (statewide winner gets the 2 "senate seats" electoral votes). Obama won Omaha in 2008 but lost it in 2012. Polls seem to suggest Clinton will win Omaha this time while Trump has a chance of one point in Maine again making it 269-269. This route is ironically, probably Trump's best chance of winning.

Tonight:

While polls have Trump in the lead in Nevada, early voting numbers in Nevada for Democrats met or exceeded the difference between Republicans compared to 2012 where Obama won by a healthy ~6 points. Trump really needs Nevada to get to 270 and it does not appear likely unless there is a registered Democrat revolt in Nevada to Trump.

Surrendering Nevada means he needs every other state and either Pennsylvania or Michigan in an upset. Early reports are suggesting a much higher that expected turnout in Blue-Collar workers in Michigan so I do think there is a chance there but history is not kind to the GOP in that state. Polls were way off about Sanders and Clinton in the primary so it is possible.

Pennsylvania, Trump should have had a chance but his campaign was run poorly there in my opinion. In order for him to have a chance, Trump cannot afford to lose by more than 40-60 in the 5 Philly counties (Philadelphia, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery) and the overall statewide Democrat vote would have to have at least 45% come from those counties for Trump to have a chance.

This means he must outperform Romney in Chester County (Romney barely won there), win Bucks County (Romney barely lost it), makeup ground in Montgomery County (Toomey and Corbett in 2010 split it almost 50/50 but Romney got crushed) and make up ground in Delaware County and potentially not do worse than 80/20 in Philly. He also has to do better than Romney in Central PA, win Pittsburgh area (do well in Allegheny County) and preform well in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. It's possible, but the campaign lacks a GOTV effort while Clinton has a huge machine in Philadelphia. Michigan is probably the better outcome.

Even so, I am doubtful he can win Florida. Remember Romney was doing well in the polls in Florida and he lost because of turnout in Miami-Dade County. Hispanic voting is way up this year, plus increased Puerto Rican voting from 2012 because more Puerto Ricans have left that miserable economy to live in Florida making them eligible to vote in Presidential elections.

North Carolina I think can go Trump, but only because that state has shown a massive reduction in African American early voting while almost every other state has shown an increase in early voting from African Americans compared to 2012. Iowa had lower early voting than 2012 giving it a slight advantage to Trump. New Hampshire is the one I least know/I am confident in. It's the state with the best Trump ground game but Ds have an advantage in that state. Tough call and really is 50/50. My brain says Clinton but my heart says Trump so I won't listen to my brain this one time xD.

Ohio looked advantage Trump until final day of early voting in Cuyahoga county allowed them to slightly exceed 2012 numbers when they were consistently lagging behind the days before. I do think NH and Ohio will go the same way and not split between the candidates. Polls suggest Trump but this could be another Nevada scenario. Ohio usually goes with the winner, but since this election is so weird, I'll make the ultimate swing state abnormal too.

Want to go to bed early? Whoever wins Florida wins it all. Wait, haven't we heard that before since 2000? If North Carolina goes Clinton, it's also mathematically impossible for Trump to win (even with PA and Michigan somehow going his way) unless he gets Florida so that can be another early state to watch for.

My prediction map:
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Last edited by CRENoutdoors; 11-08-2016 at 05:06 PM.
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post #2 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 04:58 PM
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Good analysis.

But the democrat dominance is here to stay.

Immigration trends make this a certainty unless republicans become just like democrats. What's the point of 2 parties then? I barely want to support them now, let alone when they become full blown dems in their policies.

Demography is destiny, and we are destined to become the 3rd world.

3rd worlders are poor. They will vote for free stuff, especially if they can get it from the white devil.

Democrats love to give away free stuff.

Democrats love identity politics.

Immigration trends give the opportunity to engage in indemnity politics and give away free stuff.

If trump loses tonight, and I expect he will, republicans will never come close to the White House again. Immigration trends will make it so. The political divide between white men and white women will also ensure it.
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post #3 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 05:12 PM
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I still don't get the Electoral College. Don't understand why they can't split the EC voted based on smaller geographical areas or based on a % of the popular vote. Don't understand why in, say PA, it can't be 13-7 for Hillary or something like that. A large portion of voters in many states get equalled out by CA alone. Just doesn't make sense to me.

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post #4 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 05:15 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PossumBackstrap View Post
I still don't get the Electoral College. Don't understand why they can't split the EC voted based on smaller geographical areas or based on a % of the popular vote. Don't understand why in, say PA, it can't be 13-7 for Hillary or something like that. A large portion of voters in many states get equalled out by CA alone. Just doesn't make sense to me.
They can, states have the right to. If PA did that in 2012, Romney would have won the state ~ 13-5 or 12-6 in electoral votes.

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post #5 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 05:21 PM
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I am a Republican. I think she will win and Trump and his big mouth gave her the election. She was soooo beatable but he screwed up one time after another. He said allot people wanted to hear but just didn't day it the right way. It is hard to believe that in our great country these are the best two people that they could up up with. Sad,very sad. She will be a one termer
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post #6 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 05:28 PM Thread Starter
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Sad,very sad. She will be a one termer
If the realignment theory holds true, most likely either way this next President will only serve one-term.

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post #7 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 06:46 PM
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She'll be the next POTUS, no doubt. The GOP refused to back Trump in fear of a bad rep. Hate to tell them, they already doomed themselves. I am done after the display both parties shown for this election. Obama has driven this country into the ground, and Clinton will seal the deal. The GOP will just stand around twiddling their thumbs like they have for the past eight years, accomplishing nothing, collecting their paychecks. I will no longer support either party, and become an independent. They're all turds anyway, and the only ones they look out for is themselves, Democrat and Republican. Really doesn't matter any more.

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post #8 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 07:02 PM
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I think he bought it as far as it could go...He is on an ego trip for certain..
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post #9 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 08:16 PM
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Saw they declared Kentucky and Indiana for Trump already

Well, sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes, well, he eats you, so the Dude must abide!
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post #10 of 69 (permalink) Old 11-08-2016, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted by RonM View Post
I think he bought it as far as it could go...He is on an ego trip for certain..
Don't you kind of have to have an ego to be president and think your going to accomplish all these great things?

I would be president in a heartbeat. Most of my job would be veto, veto, veto, veto until I was assassinated or impeached. 4 Year term I could do a lot of damage to leviathan. Freeze all hiring for the federal government. Enforce all immigration laws. Bring in a DOJ that prosecutes all corruption in government regardless of party.
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