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post #1 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 06:34 PM Thread Starter
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post #2 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 06:51 PM
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Re: Pa deer harvest estimate not accurate

I love it when people with no experience in doing something think they can do it better and know more than those who do. The only hoping and poking going on is your feeble attempts to discredit people who have forgotten more than most of us know.




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post #3 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 07:03 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Pa deer harvest estimate not accurate

I really doesn't take alot of expertise to post a link.
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post #4 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 07:19 PM
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Re: Pa deer harvest estimate not accurate

I don't think you read it correctly. Taken straight from the abstract:

Quote:
Harvest estimates of antlered and antlerless deer were precise for both statewide (CV < 2.5%) and DMUs (CV < 24%, median CV < 5.2%).

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post #5 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 07:21 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Pa deer harvest estimate not accurate

In case you missed the point i was making, they admitted inaccuracy due to using only the rifle reporting rate, which bloats the numbers. when they said this:

"Applying rifle-season reporting rates to other seasons resulted in <span style="font-weight: bold"><span style="text-decoration: underline">overestimating harvest by 2628%</span></span>. Variability of reporting rates precluded use of reported harvests as reliable indices of actual harvest."

Now fast forward to currently. They STILL are using the rifle only rate which bloats the figures even though they admit it was not accurate to do so. This is from the pa game commission website. The 2009-2018 deer plan link. Note there are no ARCHERY season or muzzleloader season collections teams and according to pgc those seasons have a higher reporting rate. So the lower rifle rate is used across the board, and bloats the harvest figures.

"To estimate deer harvests and collect data for monitoring deer population trends, more than 30 data collection teams examine deer in assigned areas across the state. Each team collects data for 3 days during the first week of the regular firearms season, 2 days during the second week of the season, and 2 days after the close of the season."

There you have it....

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post #6 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 07:49 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Pa deer harvest estimate not accurate

Pa sportsman, you left out an important part:

"<span style="text-decoration: underline">During rifle seasons</span> in Pennsylvania, USA, from 1990 to 2001, reporting rates varied by year, DMU, and type of deer (antlered or antlerless). Harvest estimates of antlered and antlerless deer were precise for both statewide (CV &lt; 2.5%) and DMUs (CV &lt; 24%, median CV &lt; 5.2%). "

If you read my last post, you will see that doesn't apply to the error pointed out. Using the rifle season reporting rate in rifle season alone, they did not see alot of inaccuracy in. It was when rifle season rate was used in the other seasons also. Which it still is, then there is pretty significant differences possible.

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post #7 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 07:51 PM
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Re: Pa deer harvest estimate not accurate

I am not going to get into this too deep as you really are not understanding what is written.

It clearly states that

"Applying rifle-season reporting rates to other seasons".

This means that you can not take the rate that harvests are reported from rifle season and apply it to predict archery, ML, etc. If you do, you will overestimate those seasonal harvests.

"For DMUs, reported harvests were poor predictors of estimated antlered harvests (median R2 = 0.287) "

All this is saying is that you cannot use actual reported harvests to predict the antlered deer harvest at an management unit level because the rate is so low. That is why we go out and physically collect data at butcher shops across PA. This way we get a rate of who fills out their report card and mails it to us vs. who just fills out their ear tag. A rate of reporting is then calculated and can be applied to the estimate.

Trust me when I say that PGC estimates are very tight.

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post #8 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 07:53 PM
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Re: Pa deer harvest estimate not accurate

The bottom line is, if we had more honest hunters in this state there would be no reason for an estimate for many decades.




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post #9 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 07:56 PM
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Re: Pa deer harvest estimate not accurate

Ron, it is clear you do not understand two things; 1) what is written and 2) how the harvest estimate is calculated.

Regardless, the publication clearly supports the current method of calculating estimated harvests in PA.

I bid you a good day.

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post #10 of 122 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 07:57 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Pa deer harvest estimate not accurate

"I am not going to get into this too deep as you really are not understanding what is written. "


Oh I understand what was written quite well. Not so sure about you, when you clearly told me I was wrong, didnt understand, then proceeded to explain the error of my ways by saying the exact same thing I did about harvest report rate being applied to other seasons!


"This means that you can not take the rate that harvests are reported from rifle season and apply it to predict archery, ML, etc. If you do, you will overestimate those seasonal harvests."

And that is exactly what i said. And that is exactly what pgc does for the entire harvest estimate according to their own website.

Therefore = inaccurate. Sorry, I am no deer genius, but I am no bumbling moron either. I can read and comprehend rock bottom basics here. There is no way we should not be able to agree that the numbers at the very least are not as accurate as they can be. Rosenberry even mentioned this at a past PGC meeting. I believe it was Tom Boop who interrogated him, remember?

Sorry about the confusion, but I noticed you addressed a post that I deleted it and made another while you were obviously in process of posting, I realized the wording in your last quote from me was off from what I read it, and replaced it with the more accurate fitting and supporting statement in my last post.
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