AR/HR Stats... - The HuntingPA.com Outdoor Community
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post #1 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-28-2012, 07:00 PM Thread Starter
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AR/HR Stats...

I've read a lot on here about the great AR/HR debate and saw everything you can imagine as far as opinions goes...

Anyways, I'm currently getting my MBA at Waynesburg University and recently enrolled in a statistics class. We have the opportunity to present a paper including stats to support it on the topic of our choice.

Well, I'm choosing AR/HR and am looking for stats on the broad subject. Whether it be the number of 2.5+ YO deer taken since it was implemented or whatever...basically anything.

As I said I have read it all so PLEASE DON'T MAKE THIS AN ARGUEMENT...it's for my masters presentation.

Thanks ahead everyone,
-Pat

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post #2 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-28-2012, 09:58 PM
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Re: AR/HR Stats...

http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal...=563596&mode=2

Enjoy. Waugh!

AR is only a pacifier.You will never grow if it's not in your genes.
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post #3 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-28-2012, 10:15 PM
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Re: AR/HR Stats...

Hats off to you on furthering your education and I look forward to reading the results of your efforts....
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post #4 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-29-2012, 12:44 AM
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Re: AR/HR Stats...

http://www.qdma.com/wp-content/uploa...11-low-res.pdf

Enjoy this as well.

Notice the stats on the buck harvest by age class. The number of 1.5 yr olds being harvested is trending DOWN while the number of 2.5 and 3.5 yr olds is trending UP.

Also, take a look at page 15. It shows the harvest rate of record book bucks per thousand square miles from 1999-2009. Pa blows all other states out of the water with a 500% increase in that 10 year period.
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post #5 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-29-2012, 01:46 AM
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Re: AR/HR Stats...

GC,

At a quick glance of the PA reports, it looks like you might be able to find some information that can be used for an analysis of some of this. I'm not sure the QDMA report will provide any usable data on PA as its pretty much a summary of 1997-1999 and the buck harvest data in the tables only has information for 2 of the years. 2 years won't show a trend.

If your interested, I have around 20 or so years of harvest data from our hunting club here in GA. Its not PA, but its an interesting data set with age, buck/doe, points, live weight, dressed weight, and a few other variables. I'm planning on trying to analyze it in the next few weeks before our Spring meeting. The club changed from a statewide regs club to QDM about 10-12 years ago so there would be some good data on both sides of this change. Let me know if you interested in using it.

What kind of analyses are you learning? ANOVA, linear regression, logistic regression? I didn't do well in my stats class at IUP when I was there, but really enjoyed the 4 classes I took in graduate school and did well too. The key was having datasets that I was interested in to learn the basics.
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post #6 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-29-2012, 01:58 AM
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Re: AR/HR Stats...

The 2011 QDMA report shows trends for the past 10 years as well as the time period of 2007-2009 state by state.
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post #7 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-29-2012, 02:17 AM
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Re: AR/HR Stats...

Wiz:
That is why I gave him the Pa reports. First it will allow him to research and locate or should I say isolate the data set he is looking to use. Sort of a practical application of the process.

The only problem is he seems to want to single out 2.5 year olds and the data is not recorded as such. Seems the only thing that matters are the 1.5's and then all bucks older in the Pa reports. I myself wish it was published with more age categories to choose from. Waugh!

AR is only a pacifier.You will never grow if it's not in your genes.
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post #8 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-29-2012, 02:27 AM
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Re: AR/HR Stats...

I see what you are saying jb but being expecting WCOs to be able to get accurate ages on bucks that they study in the field is unrealistic. Much like the bear check station, it is easy to determine the 1.5 yr old bucks and then everything beyond that. The overall purpose of AR was to simply allow more bucks to survive till their second birthday and that is it. Thus, the studies show that the percentage of the harvest that is 1.5 yr old bucks is down while the percentage that is 2.5 yrs + is up. That basically means that it is "working as advertised".

I won't say anymore as to not hijack GC's thread but those stats alone tell quite the story as it pertains to the shift in harvest ages.
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post #9 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-29-2012, 02:34 AM
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Re: AR/HR Stats...

JB,

I agree. The PA reports should have a long enough period of record to do some basic analyses.

I also agree that I would much rather see the harvest breakdowns include those age classes above 2.5. I noticed the QDMA report also includes 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5+. I suspect its easier to categorize into one of these groups as analysis of the older age classes is likely meaningless due to small sample size.
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post #10 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-29-2012, 02:57 AM
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Re: AR/HR Stats...

Quote:
I see what you are saying jb but being expecting WCOs to be able to get accurate ages on bucks that they study in the field is unrealistic.
Where do you think QDMA got the data from in the article you posted. Hope you don't think they have their own experts out gathering data in each state. BTW PGC has data collection teams trained to get the job done. This is not the 70's.

Quote:
it is easy to determine the 1.5 yr old bucks and then everything beyond that.
Sure but it is not so easy to tell a 3.5 from a 4.5 and on and on without the tooth from each. May be collecting it but everything 2.5 and older is all lumped together for Pa at this time.

Quote:
The overall purpose of AR was to simply allow more bucks to survive till their second birthday and that is it. Thus, the studies show that the percentage of the harvest that is 1.5 yr old bucks is down while the percentage that is 2.5 yrs + is up. That basically means that it is "working as advertised".
How can anyone deny that. But with that brief reason it falls short of proving any advanced age structure or increase in 3.5 and older deer. Waugh!

AR is only a pacifier.You will never grow if it's not in your genes.
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