PA Elk Odds? - The HuntingPA.com Outdoor Community
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post #1 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-16-2019, 03:04 PM Thread Starter
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PA Elk Odds?

For the first time ever, I'll be entering the lottery for PA Elk tags this year. Anyone have any sense of the chances of actually getting one? I'm thinking like....1%.
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post #2 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-16-2019, 03:10 PM
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It's a LOT less than that!
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post #3 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-16-2019, 03:43 PM
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Better than the powerball at least
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post #4 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-16-2019, 07:15 PM
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Good luck, been applying since the inception with no luck. Maybe lightning will strike this year.
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post #5 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-16-2019, 07:20 PM
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In the drawing being looked at, there will be considerable fewer tags to draw.
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post #6 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-16-2019, 07:33 PM
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Yet every year at the Elk Expo drawing there are about 3 or 4 hunters that get to hear their name called. Then a celebration breaks out. I try not to miss this annual event on Winslow Hill. Last year a gentleman behind me who was in his 70,s got picked for a bull tag and the crowd cheered wildly.Every hunter who applies should see this drawing at least once.Even with those odds if you do not get picked it is a good feeling to see another hunter about to get a shot to fulfill their dream.
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post #7 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-16-2019, 07:55 PM
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I remember seeing a chart from a few years ago where 30,000 people applied for a tag. Now you would have to break it down into who applied for only Bull, only cow or either and subtract bonus points only. And you would also have to add up everyone’s bonus points for individual odds. But to make is more simplistic it’s 142 tags available divided into 30,000. So roughly a .0047333% chance.

But you can’t win unless you apply.
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post #8 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-16-2019, 08:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Curly Maple View Post
In the drawing being looked at, there will be considerable fewer tags to draw.

That because of there being a separate archery elk tag drawing?

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post #9 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-17-2019, 12:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlane35 View Post
I remember seeing a chart from a few years ago where 30,000 people applied for a tag. Now you would have to break it down into who applied for only Bull, only cow or either and subtract bonus points only. And you would also have to add up everyone’s bonus points for individual odds. But to make is more simplistic it’s 142 tags available divided into 30,000. So roughly a .0047333% chance.

But you can’t win unless you apply.
142 tags out of 30,000 applicants would be .473% but that is if each applicant had 1 point. There are probably 10K applicants that will have 17 points, and then you have those with 16 points and so on. So using the PGC chart above for bulls in 2018 you have about a .013% chance.

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post #10 of 22 (permalink) Old 06-17-2019, 06:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sojourner48 View Post
That because of there being a separate archery elk tag drawing?

Yes, that and the new late season drawing. Tags have been taken away from the drawing everyone is looking at here. The odds of drawing a tag are anyone's guess for this year.
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