I remember seeing a chart from a few years ago where 30,000 people applied for a tag. Now you would have to break it down into who applied for only Bull, only cow or either and subtract bonus points only. And you would also have to add up everyone’s bonus points for individual odds. But to make is more simplistic it’s 142 tags available divided into 30,000. So roughly a .0047333% chance.
But you can’t win unless you apply.